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In isolation, some of the Biden government’s recent decisions on sanctions and transatlantic diplomacy may seem overly accommodating. But above everything – including Biden’s upcoming European tour – is the pursuit of a unified Western policy in dealing with an increasingly aggressive China.
STANFORD – Joe Biden is about to make his first trip to Europe as US President. After a G7 summit in England, he will attend a NATO summit in Belgium and then a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. But while Europe will serve as the arena, the focus will ultimately be on China, as Biden’s strategic priority is to organize a unified Western response to Chinese behavior.
China’s increasing assertiveness and contempt for Europe have tainted many European leaders’ views of President Xi Jinping’s regime and created an opportunity Biden cannot miss. As strange as it may sound, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline connecting Germany with Russia is now at the center of Biden’s efforts to lure Europe – especially Germany – away from China.
Biden ridiculed Nord Stream for 2 years as “bad business for Europe”, arguing that it jeopardized the security of the continent and particularly that of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states. At his confirmation hearing in January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the new administration was “determined to do everything possible to prevent the completion of the pipeline.”
But the efforts of the USA to destroy Nord Stream 2 could have dealt a fatal blow to the transatlantic alliance, because the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel sees Russian gas as Germany’s waypoint for the coal exit. In an unexpected U-turn, the United States waived sanctions last month against the company that is building the pipeline. Since then, Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has raved about “the really excellent relationships we have built with the Biden government”.
One of the biggest winners is certainly Putin. Since Nord Stream 2 delivers Russian gas directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea, the Kremlin can stop deliveries to transit countries such as Ukraine. But while there is no denying that Ukraine’s security, finances, and even independence have been called into question, the Biden administration was wise to admit it couldn’t stop the pipeline. She therefore decided to use the acceptance of the project to gain more cooperation from Germany in US policy towards China.
For its part, China views Europe as even more decadent and sclerotic than the US, and it is piling up abuse on the continent and even imposing individual sanctions on Dutch lawmakers and members of the European Parliament. In response, the European Parliament blocked ratification of the draft Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI), an agreement the European Commission agreed with China last December, openly rejecting the future Biden government’s request for prior consultations on the issue from.
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China’s assertiveness has given both Germany and the US the encouragement they needed to reach an agreement that will unite the West. The conditions are already clear: Germany will get the pipeline and ultimately the desired climate policy; Germany is supporting the USA in implementing a new China strategy and defending the rule-based international order.
In context, Biden’s license for Nord Stream 2 was essentially free. With the Germans determined to complete the project, the US opposition would only have deepened the divisions in the Western alliance. Unlike the former President Donald Trump, Biden has recognized reality with his bombastic deal-making and brinkmanship and has drawn material advantages from it. It is now very unlikely that Europeans will allow the CAI to be introduced anytime soon.
As for Putin’s Russia, Biden seems confident that the West has the ability not only to contain it, but perhaps also to lure it away from China. It is clear that increasing reliance on China is not in the interests of Russia’s national security, and this is presumably the message Biden Putin will deliver in Geneva.
Trump didn’t believe America needed allies in Europe to achieve its economic and political goals. But Biden understands that the transatlantic alliance is a bedrock of US economic and national security. He is therefore prepared to risk polishing up Russian economic interests in order to strengthen the West’s position vis-Ã -vis China.
Critics such as Wolfgang Münchau from Eurointelligence see Biden’s policy as “a misjudgment of German politics that promises poor prospects for a successful foreign policy for the Biden government”. Indeed, the firm anchoring of Germany in a western united front for dealing with China could prove to be one of Biden’s most important diplomatic achievements. Last but not least, it is a bold gesture that drives Trumpism out of US foreign policy.
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