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For many of Germany’s allies, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to state clearly what seems obvious – that Russia would lose a new gas pipeline to Germany if it invaded Ukraine – is utterly baffling.
Even some in his own governing coalition are perplexed.
“There is no reasonable explanation for this,” said Reinhard Bütikofer, an MEP who was a former co-chair of Germany’s Greens, one of three parties in the Scholz government.
But others say the reasons lie in diplomatic tactics, domestic party politics and legal concerns. Taken together, they make the pipeline from Russia to Germany, dubbed Nord Stream 2, a different issue for the German chancellor than for any other world leader.
On the diplomatic front, the German government says it wants to keep Russia in the dark about possible penalties. And even within Scholz’s SPD, some high-ranking politicians are staunch advocates of the pipeline, which makes things more difficult for the chancellor. Then there’s the legal component – political interference in a regulatory decision could expose the government to court challenges and large payouts.
The reasons are unlikely to satisfy critics nor provide a complete answer. But they help explain why Scholz has stubbornly stuck to his line despite mounting global admonitions. He even clumsily complied on Monday, revealing a rift between himself and US President Joe Biden during an appearance at the White House intended to demonstrate unity.
“We will put an end to this,” Biden said, unequivocally reaffirming the US position on the fate of Nord Stream 2 should Russia invade Ukraine.
For his part, Scholz seemed to imply that Berlin was on the same page – but couldn’t bring himself to actually say it. “You can be assured that there will be no action where we act differently,” he said.
Increasing pressure
Berlin has been trying to downplay the political dimension of Nord Stream 2 for years.
But that approach became increasingly difficult as Russia massed troops along Ukraine’s border and refused to back down unless NATO dismantles its presence in Eastern Europe — a non-starter for the military alliance.
The standoff has prompted a scramble among Western leaders to coordinate a list of punitive sanctions they would impose should Moscow deploy troops to Ukraine.
On the lists of many countries: Killing Nord Stream 2.
Numerous Western countries, including the US and Ukraine, have long opposed the project over fears that it will make Europe overly dependent on Russian gas. And Russia’s saber-rattling has created another reason to put it back on the chopping block. However, as a consensus formed on including Nord Stream 2 in a sanctions package, German leaders remained vague on the matter.
Scholz eventually acknowledged that Nord Stream 2 would be on the table, but never made a definitive commitment to killing it should Russia launch an attack.
The issue came under the global spotlight during the Scholz-Biden meeting in Washington on Monday. Scholz’s refusal to go along with Biden’s stance echoed across the Atlantic.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy canceled a meeting scheduled for Tuesday with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. allegedly out of indignation at the confused position of the federal government.
Bütikofer was particularly critical of Scholz’s appearance alongside Biden.
“Scholz missed the last opportunity at this press conference to make it clear that Germany itself is able to draw the appropriate conclusions,” said the Greens’ top politician.
Criticism also came from the German opposition.
“By not saying the obvious about the consequences of Nord Stream 2, the chancellor creates a negative effect: speculation about Germany’s position is given further space,” said Norbert Röttgen, foreign policy MP for the CDU (CDU). CDU).
Scholz had the opportunity to explain his position in private at dinner with several US senators on Monday evening. US politicians were convinced that Scholz was allied with Biden, limited only by Germany’s idiosyncratic policies.
“German politics is funny” said Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat like Biden. “They can’t say things as loudly and spontaneously as we can. They form a coalition and stick to the agreements made, which means he has less leeway.”
It certainly won’t be the last time Scholz will be pressured to discuss the issue with foreign politicians. He is scheduled to travel to Moscow and Kyiv next week, trying to both defuse military tensions and walk the tightrope on Nord Stream 2.
Party politics, legal concerns
On Tuesday, a German official tried to defend Scholz’s position, arguing that Germany has a long tradition of not disclosing possible sanctions it is planning against Moscow.
Instead, she tried to simply say that Russia would pay a massive price for invading Ukraine.
“The chancellor has repeatedly made it clear that all options are on the table in the event of an attack. He spoke of high costs for Russia,” the official said.
However, there are also indications that other factors could play a role if Scholz is reluctant to formulate clear consequences, such as partisan and legal concerns.
Within the Social Democrats there are some high-ranking pro-pipeline politicians – most notably Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht. The party’s general secretary, Kevin Kühnert, is also a big supporter of the pipeline, as is the prime minister of the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig.
Then there’s the biggest advocate of all – former SPD chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who has close ties to Russia. The world was sharply reminded of those connections last Friday when it was revealed that Schröder had been appointed to the board of directors of Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy company behind Nord Stream 2.
The economy also plays a role.
Obtaining Russian gas through a direct pipeline would have a financial advantage for Germany and other western European countries, as they would not have to pay transit fees to intermediate countries like Ukraine. Berlin has said it wants to continue sourcing some of its gas supplies through Ukraine to support the country, but critics have questioned how long such a settlement could last.
More broadly, Scholz and Baerbock have said Germany needs Russian gas in its transition from coal and nuclear to renewables.
Then there’s the regulatory component, which could get messy in the coming months.
Nord Stream 2 has been completed but is still awaiting approval from German regulators – a process currently on hold for technical reasons. Berlin would risk a lot during this time if it got involved politically and stopped the project. For example, if a judge finds the freeze unjustified, it could lead to legal challenges and heavy penalties for the government.
“It has always been a consideration of the federal government – and rightly so in my opinion – that it does not want to be liable for damages,” said Bütikofer, indicating that this could be a reason for Scholz’s cautious formulation.
However, Bütikofer referred to the recent statements by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Russia is using gas supplies “as a means of exerting pressure” against the EU. These statements, he argued, could indicate that Nord Stream 2 is no longer compliant with European energy laws.
“If the pipeline does not comply with European energy regulations, we will not be liable for any damage if it is not connected to the grid,” he said.
Röttgen of the CDU predicted that Scholz will once again feel the heat of his reluctant messages on Nord Stream 2 when he hosts the leaders of the three Baltic countries – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia – at the Chancellery this Thursday.
“The Baltic States have always been against this project and feel threatened as small countries and former Soviet republics,” he said. “There is a clear expectation that Berlin will take a clearer position in the face of the Russian threat.”
America Hernandez provided coverage from Brussels and Andrew Desiderio provided coverage from Washington, DC
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