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LONDON – The Wagner group of private military corporations operates in the shadows, its existence, operations and property being the subject of rumors, disinformation and denial. But it could be in the process of achieving something that militants and rebels have not been able to achieve over the decades “to hasten the end of what was once considered to be a never-ending French military intervention in Mali.
News reports this week indicated that Mali’s interim government, which came to power in a coup last year, was on the verge of signing a deal with the Russian company to combat Islamist militants. The news led to a reprimand from Paris that the arrival of the Wagner group was “incompatible” with decades of French support for Mali’s government.
The French stance was confirmed by German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who said on Twitter that the company’s hiring would call into question everything the United Nations and the European Union are doing in Mali. Germany is making a significant contribution to a European Union training mission, while the UN force also includes British, Chinese and other multinational forces.
A spokesman for the leader of the Malian junta said he had no information about such a deal. Malian officials told journalists that the government is in contact with “everyone” to fight an ongoing insurgency that includes elements of Islamic State.
How close France and Germany could be to the Mali withdrawal remains unclear, but President Emmanuel Macron has signaled that he would like to withdraw French troops in the country.
In June, Macron announced plans to reduce France’s longstanding anti-terrorist operation Barkhane in Mali and merge it with other international efforts. At the time, France had more than 5,000 soldiers deployed in Mali and the wider region, its presence stretching back to colonial times, but Paris wants to share the burden with other European and African nations.
Paris and Berlin are now signaling that the arrival of the Wagner group would go a step too far. Perhaps it could also serve as an excuse to enlist support from a region where they would like to cut back on their involvement, even if they lose influence over Moscow and Beijing.
While China’s reach in Africa has fueled investment in countries across the continent, Russia’s is newer and more focused. The Wagner group took advantage of instability and violence. Libya and the Central African Republic are the two most commonly documented examples, but there have been reports of Russian military companies operating in various locations in Mozambique, Madagascar, and Sudan.
The Wagner Group’s potential deal in Mali was first reported by Reuters on September 13th. Several diplomatic and security sources said a deal could be struck for his services. Reuters was unable to reach the Wagner group for comment.
The extent to which the company exists as an independent private entity remains unclear. Foreign Policy magazine said earlier this year that such a unit as Wagner Group does not legally exist, and the term is instead used as an abbreviation for a network of contractors established by the Kremlin for fighting and expanding in Ukraine in 2014 to Syria next year. Russian authorities refuse Wagner Group contractors to carry out their orders.
The group’s ownership structure also remains opaque. Several media outlets, including Reuters, have linked businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin denies any connection to the Wagner group and his press office says he has no involvement in Africa and no business interests there.
Since a coup last August condemned by the US and France, Mali appears to be moving closer to Russia and further from Paris and Washington.
After the coup, some foreign and Malian media pointed to possible Russian involvement and reported that Mali’s new military leaders Malick Diaw and Sadio Camara had spent a year at a military college in Moscow. Camara, who is now defense minister, was on an official visit to Russia this month, Reuters reported, citing a Malian defense official.
It is unclear whether Russia could replace France as the main player in Mali. France is interested in building international resistance to the Wagner Group’s deployment, but on other fronts, both Paris and Berlin have long been interested in balancing the confrontation with Russia through economic and other collaborations. This has been demonstrated by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will transport natural gas from Russia via the Baltic Sea to Europe, bypassing Ukraine. The construction of the pipeline was rejected by the US, but supported by Macron, Chancellor Angela Merkel and their two likely successors in the German leadership.
Whatever the outcome of events in Mali, Russia has once again proven how effective it can be to use unconventional tactics and forces to get a seat at the table if it wants to.
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